MK sportinauguration ceremony as JD Vance and Joe Biden look on in the Rotunda of the US Capitol on January 20, 2025 in Washington, DC. Donald Trump takes office for his second term as the 47th president of the US, becoming the second president to serve nonconsecutive terms. Photo: VCG" src="https://www.globaltimes.cn/Portals/0/attachment/2025/2025-01-21/dfd109fb-7e8d-475d-8eb1-f04e571bbc41.jpeg" />

Donald Trump arrives for his inauguration ceremony as JD Vance and Joe Biden look on in the Rotunda of the US Capitol on January 20, 2025 in Washington, DC. Donald Trump takes office for his second term as the 47th president of the US, becoming the second president to serve nonconsecutive terms. Photo: VCG

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has sparked a sharp debate among experts over the future of China-US relations. Speaking at Davos, a prominent American scholar suggested that Trump's unconventional approach to diplomacy could bring about a surprising improvement in US-China ties, arguing that Trump might not fit the typical mold of a "China hawk." However, this optimistic view was met with opposition from another scholar, who warned that a Trump presidency could instead exacerbate tensions, predicting that bilateral ties could be "materially worse" within a year. This divide underscores the uncertainty and high stakes surrounding the trajectory of one of the world's most critical relationships, an expert says. 

Instead of the widely discussed possible trade war between the two countries, Graham Allison, a professor with the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, said during a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum on Tuesday that ties between the two superpowers could tick up, according to the South China Morning Post. 

"I'm betting this time next year… we'll be surprised on the upside in the relationship," said Allison, best known for his 2017 book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?

"I have a piece, it'll be published next week, that asks: 'Is Trump a China hawk?' I think, if you look at what he said and did, you'll find it difficult to classify him in those terms."

"I think it is not possible, but likely that President Trump will surprise us in building a more constructive, productive relationship with China," Allison said in an email on Tuesday. 

Allison, who is known for his concept of the "Thucydides Trap," said on a visit to China in December last year that the US and China should avoid falling into the trap and that finding the right way for them to get along with each other is important for both countries and the world at large.

But Ian Bremmer, founder of the Eurasia Group consultancy, another panelist at Tuesday's discussion, sharply disagreed and said ties could be "materially worse" in 12 months.

"China is convinced Americans want to contain it," Bremmer said. "They have ample evidence… Even though Trump is going to make a deal, the ability and the willingness of China are not propitious.

"I would make a fairly strong bet that US-China relations will be in materially worse condition."

The China-US relationship has long been characterized by complexity and significance. Li Haidong, a professor at China Foreign Affairs University, shared his insights with the Global Times. Pessimists often overlook the shared interests and intricacies that define bilateral ties between Beijing and Washington, and that Trump's focus on addressing practical issues, rather than fixating on ideological divides, could pave the way for more constructive engagement. Li highlighted that the perspective offered by Allison acknowledges the mutual benefits that can arise from cooperation between the two nations.

Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said that competition between the US and China will grow, although the risk of a "full decoupling" is unlikely at this stage. "We are in a new environment, a more dangerous, more turbulent environment," Wong told university students on Tuesday in comments posted by the Straits Times newspaper. He flagged the risk of new trade barriers or accidents and miscalculations around hotspots like the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait.

In response to Trump's remarks that he would order federal agencies to conduct a study of trade issues while holding off on immediately imposing new tariffs on trade with China, Guo Jiakun, a spokesperson from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Tuesday that economic cooperation and trade between China and the US benefit both sides. Keeping business ties sound and stable serves the fundamental interests of both countries and both peoples, and it is also conducive to global economic growth. 

China stands ready to follow the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, strengthen dialogue and communication with the US, properly manage differences, and expand mutually beneficial cooperation. We hope the US will work with us to promote the steady, sound and sustainable growth of bilateral trade and economic ties, Guo said.