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Numerous people celebrate the agreed ceasefire between Israel and Hamas on Hermannplatz in Berlin on January 15, 2025. Photo: VCG

The cease-fire agreement in the Gaza Strip reached by Israel and Hamas on Wednesday is expected to take effect on Sunday. This has brought a ray of light to the peace between Israel and Palestine after a long time. According to CBS News, this agreement sets out a phased framework for a cease-fire and the exchange of hostages, and includes access for humanitarian aid to Gaza and the eventual ability of Palestinians in Gaza to return to areas they fled.

This cease-fire agreement is the result of the joint promotion of many internal and external factors. First, the "American factor" played a role, with both the current Joe Biden administration and President-elect Donald Trump pushing for a cease-fire. Second, Qatar and Egypt have made great contributions to the communication and persuasion of Israel and Palestine, highlighting their role as "mediators for regional peace." Third, Israel and Hamas are both suffering from "war fatigue" after more than a year of intense conflict, and the internal and external pressures on each side are increasing. 

The promotion of peace between Israel and Palestine is in line with the common desire of the people in the region and the international community. After a long period of intense conflict and serious humanitarian disaster, the agreement aims to realize the general goal of stopping the war, which holds positive significance for the two sides to move toward a permanent cease-fire and cool down the situation in the Middle East. However, the cease-fire agreement is still only the first step toward peace between Israel and Palestine, and there are many uncertainties about its implementation.

First, the cease-fire agreement is fragile. In Israel, there is a great deal of controversy over this deal since it goes contrary to the Israeli side's long-stated goal of "the complete elimination of Hamas." On the other hand, although Hamas has agreed to a cease-fire, its hatred of Israel remains intractable, and the inability of the Palestinians to establish an independent state will continue to provide Hamas with the room for existence and action. In addition, the Israel-Palestine conflict is linked to the overall situation in the Middle East, and any fluctuation in the regional situation may lead to a resumption of fighting.

Second, the post-war governance arrangements for Gaza are still pending, and key political issues such as who will govern the region after the war and, in particular, the role of Hamas, need to be further negotiated and determined. The disagreements between Israel and Palestine over the rights of security control and governance in the Gaza Strip are significant. Besides, since the humanitarian crisis in the area is significant and the funds and materials needed for reconstruction and relief are huge, great challenges of who will pay for and how to carry out relief and reconstruction in an orderly manner remain.

Third, although the US was involved in facilitating the cease-fire, it will still be difficult for the country to change its basic stance of favoring Israel, and its future policies could be volatile. For the sake of reducing investment and enhancing the real interests of the US, ending the conflict and avoiding a new war in the Middle East are Washington's priorities. However, it is likely that the US is unwilling to invest more energy and resources to further promote the complex and hard-to-achieve Israel-Palestine peace.

The road to peace between Israel and Palestine is still long, as the conflict between Palestine and Israel is complex, and it is not easy to make substantive progress in resolving many key issues. The outbreak of this round of the Israel-Palestine conflict has intensified the hostility between the two sides and undermined mutual trust, making negotiations and reconciliation more difficult. Although more and more international consensus has been developed around the Palestinian question, the serious imbalance of power between Israel and Palestine, as well as the pro-Israeli stance of the US government, have made it difficult to implement the "two-state solution" for a long time.

Since October 2023, the catastrophic consequences and spillover effects of this round of the Israel-Palestine conflict have shocked the world, and the Palestine question's role as the core of the Middle East issue has become even more prominent. Looking ahead, although the Israel-Palestine peace process is difficult, the international community should continue to be unswerving to support it, and this goal deserves and requires joint efforts and high expectations of all parties.

The author is a research fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University. [email protected]