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US President Joe Biden walks to Air Force One on the military section of BER Airport and leaves Germany on October 18, 2024, Berlin. Photo: VCG

When discussing high-level interactions between Germany and the US in recent years, three significant moments stand out. 

The first was in November 2016, during then-US President Barack Obama's final visit to Germany. The interaction between Obama and then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel underscored the importance of the US-Germany relationship in "jointly defending Western values." 

The second moment was in July 2021, during Merkel's "farewell visit" to the US. This was during Joe Biden's administration, after the damage to US-Germany relations done by former US president Donald Trump.

Despite efforts by both leaders to project a sense of closeness and a return to "normalcy" in their relations, underlying differences, particularly over policies toward Russia and economic competition, were difficult to conceal. 

The third moment occurred in February 2022, during German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's first visit to the US as Germany's leader, just as the Russia-Ukraine conflict loomed. Disputes over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project became a focal point, with Biden's aggressive stance and Scholz's hesitant demeanor revealing that the seemingly more "equal" US-Germany relationship under Merkel had reverted to its previous state.

Biden's last visit to Germany during his presidency was even bumpier. His stay in Germany was cut to less than 24 hours, and his meetings with European leaders appeared to be more of a formality. 

The US presidential election is clearly of the utmost concern to the Biden administration, and the importance of foreign policy, including relations with Germany, has significantly diminished. In this context, the bilateral significance of Biden's trip to Germany was minimal, apart from ceremonial interactions between leaders. Germany seemed to serve merely as a backdrop for Biden to emphasize that the US would not abandon Europe, framing this as part of his political legacy. 

Current interactions between the two countries are marked by a lack of attention from both governments, making even the awkward yet engaging discussions from the Nord Stream 2 project seem distant. 

Beyond domestic factors, longstanding differences between the US and Germany in economic and security matters have also grown, with both sides struggling to resolve their conflicts and coordinate effectively. Germany's close economic ties with the US have made its economy one of the casualties of US' Inflation Reduction Act, with Germany's "deindustrialization" becoming a stepping stone for the US to achieve its own reindustrialization goals.

Even in the security field, where Germany is most dependent on the US, the two countries are not fully aligned. Whether in overt and covert disagreements over Russia or in the push-and-pull over policies supporting Ukraine, their differences in interests and approaches have become more apparent, even as they maintain a facade of political unity. Despite Germany's increased security dependence on the US, such as its massive defense spending, purchases of US military equipment, and acceptance of American missile systems, this has only deepened criticism from opposition parties and further eroded support for the ruling coalition. The security guarantees the US provides to Germany are now coming at the cost of Germany's own political stability.

Biden still needs to show solidarity with Europe to prove that his policy of "revitalizing the alliance system" has not failed, despite lacking the capacity to reassure Germany and other European allies that they will continue to enjoy the same level of US support. Germany, on its part, needs to host Biden and the leaders of the UK and France to affirm its significance within Europe and the broader Western alliance, and as to reaffirm its unity with the US on the Russia-Ukraine and Palestine-Israel conflicts. But the uncomfortable reality is that beyond reiterating the old message of resolute support for Ukraine and Israel, the US-Europe high-level interactions hosted by Germany yielded no tangible progress or results in terms of increasing aid to Ukraine or resolving the Palestine-Israel conflict.

The most disappointed party in this staged interaction between Germany and the US is propably Ukraine, which faces a harsh winter ahead without the firm and generous support from the West it had hoped for. 

The looming cold might also symbolize the uncertain future of US-Germany relations. Biden's hurried visit to Germany has left behind a transatlantic relationship that is once again headed for rough turbulence.

The author is a professor at the Academy of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University. [email protected]