Illustration: Chen Xia/GT

At the third session of the 14th National People's Congress in 2025,MKsports the Chinese government's work report released positive signals of stability, confidence and vitality, injecting an important stabilizing force into the current global economy that is characterized by changes and turbulences. There are three main reasons why we are able to remain confident that China's economy will achieve around 5 percent growth this year despite the stormy external environment, while maintaining a low level of inflation and preventing the gains of residents and businesses from being eroded by high prices.

First, the incremental economic volume is huge. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), China's economic volume has successively crossed the milestones of 110 trillion yuan (around $15.15 trillion), 120 trillion yuan and 130 trillion yuan, creating more and more value each year. Based on the GDP of 134.9 trillion yuan in 2024 and the 5 percent growth estimated for 2025, the GDP in 2025 will exceed the milestone of 140 trillion yuan, reaching 141.6 trillion yuan. Based on the exchange rate at the end of 2024, China's economy will total $19.7 trillion in 2025, an increase of $938.1 billion from 2024. This increment will exceed the economy of Switzerland, which ranked 20th in 2024 and is around three times the increment of India's economy last year.

Just like a ship sailing on the sea, the global economy in 2025 is facing "strong winds and high waves" of protectionism and unilateralism, and only a bigger ship can maintain a more stable navigation. China's huge economic volume and rapid economic growth will not only create conditions for global economic stability, but also attract more trade and investment partners to establish economic and trade ties with the country. It will become the "anchor of stability" in the global supply chain. 

Second, there is huge room for growth in domestic demand. The huge market provides room for all types of enterprises to grow, while the combination of the sizeable population and the growth in personal disposable income breeds enormous development opportunities. China's economic growth model is undergoing a structural adjustment, and the role of investment in economic development is gradually being replaced by consumption. However, the growth of consumption cannot be achieved in the blink of an eye, as it requires sustained momentum.

To accelerate this transformation, China will prioritize expanding employment opportunities and improving residents' income levels. In 2025, China aims to create over 12 million new urban jobs, and the growth in residents' income will align with economic growth. More space will be created for consumption with a 5.1 percent increase in the nationwide per capita disposable income, significantly higher than the 2 percent growth in the consumer price index. 

Among the 10 tasks set in the government work report for 2025, "Vigorously boosting consumption and investment returns and stimulating domestic demand across the board" ranks first. As the special actions to boost consumption and efforts to expand effective investment progress, the environmental factors limiting consumption will significantly improve. The issue of ultra-long special treasury bonds totaling 300 billion yuan to support consumer goods trade-in programs will continue to accelerate the upgrading of residential consumer goods. Consumption, as an important part of the product and service lifecycle, is expected to play a more active role, creating broader opportunities for exports to China.

Third, the momentum for innovation remains strong and sustained. The development of China's economy has never relied on "exploitation by altering the rules of the game." Instead, it has built sustainable development capabilities through scaling up and actively sought its own growth space in market competition through innovation. As we enter the second quarter of this century, new quality productive forces will provide a more sufficient driving force for China's economic growth. 

The government work report specifically highlights three directions: fostering emerging and future industries, promoting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, and unleashing the creativity of the digital economy. China is actively responding to the global wave of technological innovation, providing fertile ground for the equalization of technologies such as artificial intelligence, sparking enthusiasm for the development of commercial spaceflight and low-altitude economy, and leading global advancements in areas such as biomanufacturing, quantum technology, embodied AI and 6G technology. 

By creating a conducive environment for innovation, attracting global innovators and innovation elements to develop in China, and offering a well-rounded industrial ecosystem and favorable returns for innovation, China can generate more innovation engines to help sustain high-quality development in its economy.

The author is a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation. opinion@globaltimes.com.cn