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The European Union flags in front of EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. Photo: Xinhua

 
Recently, the EU released the annual review of the progress of the enlargement of member states. Currently, there are nine countries that have EU candidate status. It can be seen that the EU is vigorously promoting the enlargement process.

After seven rounds of enlargement, the EU now has 27 member states. But European integration has always faced the problem of a contradiction between expansion and deepening: To demonstrate the bloc's political image and influence of European unity, it is necessary to expand the membership and to improve the efficiency of the EU's decision-making. 

It is also necessary to expand the function of the euro and promote economic growth, and to further deepen integration. Expansion can expand the political map of Europe, but this will lead to internal contradictions and reduce cohesion. 

Deepening integration can promote European unity and improve decision-making efficiency, but it will bring internal problems regarding mechanisms and structures.
In recent years, the accelerated eastward expansion of NATO, the strengthening of US intervention in European affairs, and the expansion of the BRICS countries have prompted EU decision-makers to seriously consider the problems between EU enlargement and deepening integration. 

The problem is that EU expansion is by no means easy and faces numerous challenges. First, among the many candidate countries, two are unlikely to join. Turkey began accession negotiations as far back as 2005, but due to religious differences and alleged "democratic backsliding," it has faced significant obstacles in these talks. Ukraine was granted candidate status swiftly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in 2022, but remains far from meeting the accession standards. Second, EU accession negotiations involve satisfying the "Copenhagen Criteria" across 35 chapters. Negotiating these chapters one by one is a lengthy and broad process that cannot be completed overnight. Third, even if negotiations are concluded, the accession still requires individual approval by the European Parliament and the parliaments of all member states. If any one of these bodies blocks the process, accession becomes unattainable.

Although expansion is now an urgent priority for the EU, doubts remain about whether the EU can resolve its internal cohesion issues. On immigration, tensions have been prominent between Western European countries such as Germany and Sweden and Eastern European countries like Hungary and Poland. 

Regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, significant differences of opinion exist between the EU and member states such as Hungary and Slovakia. On European defense and the energy crisis, France and Germany have struggled to align their approaches. These various disagreements reveal deep coordination challenges and structural issues within the EU's internal mechanisms.

As EU enlargement becomes imperative, future EU decision-making is likely to be influenced by more factors, which will potentially reduce its efficiency. This has made the reform of the EU's voting mechanism on major issues increasingly urgent. On November 22, 2023, the European Parliament narrowly passed a proposal to abolish the veto power of individual member states, replacing it with majority voting. 

Although this proposal still requires approval by the European Council, in the long run, if the EU aims to achieve deeper integration through enlargement and to enhance policy efficiency and political influence, it must break away from its original voting mechanism and adopt majority consensus among member states as the basis for policy decisions.

Future political reforms in the EU could potentially develop in two directions. For major issues and key policy decisions, the EU might allow for differences in policies and progress among member states. However, to resolve conflicts, the EU may establish an expulsion or exit mechanism for member states. 

Regardless of how reform unfolds, under the strong pressure of today's Euroskepticism and far-right political movements, the EU must deliver a strong response.

The author is a research fellow at the Institute of European Studies, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. [email protected]