A consumer from Poland talks with a shop owner about purchasing Christmas products in Yiwu, East China's Zhejiang Province on July 9, 2024. Yiwu is the world's major supplier for global Christmas products. As summer is the peak season for shipments, a wide range of products will be shipped out after foreign merchants place their orders. Photo: VCG
China posted improving economic data for October as a series of existing and new support policies took effect. Chinese officials and analysts said that as more of these policies are implemented, economic recovery and growth will be further consolidated.
Key economic indicators in consumption, services, and trade showed marked improvement, while employment and prices remained stable and social expectations continued to improve, Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), told a press conference on Friday.
Fu said that high-quality development made solid progress, accumulating positive factors that supported steady economic progress and recovery and also mentioned the complicated international environment, the lingering weakness in domestic demand, and some businesses that are still facing difficulties.
China's value-added industrial output, an important economic indicator, increased by 5.3 percent year-on-year in October, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from September, data from the NBS showed Friday.
China's retail sales of consumer goods rose by 4.8 percent year-on-year to 4.54 trillion yuan ($628.07 billion) in October, 1.6 percentage points higher than in September, the NBS said.
Fixed-asset investment rose 3.4 percent year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2024, maintaining the same growth rate as in the January-September period.
More economic upticks
In September, China intensified its release of support policies with targeted stimulus to stabilize economic activity as the country strives to meet its key annual economic and social development targets. The efforts included significant interest rate cuts and measures to stabilize the property and capital markets.
"October is the first month since the implementation of these incremental policies, and we're seeing initial results, with major economic indicators clearly rebounding. In particular, areas related to major national strategies, strengthening security in key sectors, large-scale equipment upgrades, and consumer goods replacement showed significant improvement," Fu said, noting that sales of autos, home appliances, and office supplies rose markedly, while infrastructure investment in water conservancy, ecological protection, and roads steadily recovered.
Output in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing saw strong growth in October, the NBS data showed. Production of new-energy vehicles (NEVs) increased by 48.6 percent year-on-year, while production of industrial robots rose by 33.4 percent, and for integrated circuits, it rose by 11.8 percent.
The Index of Services Production was up 6.3 percent year-on-year in October, 1.2 percentage points higher than that of September.
The implementation of major projects resulted in infrastructure investment during the January-October period increasing by 4.3 percent, 0.2 percentage points higher than the January-September period, and marking the first rebound in recent months, Fu said.
Zhou Maohua, an economist at China Everbright Bank, told the Global Times on Friday that while industrial output expanded at a slightly slower pace than in September, it continued to show structural improvement, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors seeing robust growth.
"A combination of supportive policies and the typically high consumption season in October led to better-than-expected retail sales growth, with strong auto sales and signs of stabilization in real estate," Zhou said. He predicted that the momentum in consumption recovery would continue as the property and capital markets rebound in the remaining months of the year.
The October data came following the release of other economic indicators suggesting a rebound in the economy. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing industry, which gauges activity in the sector, rose to 50.1 in October, marking a return to expansion territory after five months of contraction.
In October, the country's merchandise trade grew by 4.6 percent year-on-year in yuan-denominated terms, an increase of 3.9 percentage points from the September rate, the General Administration of Customs revealed on November 7.
More support ahead
The Chinese economy has seen a number of recovering trends in recent weeks, with several milestones for industrial production and trade.
On Friday, the country saw the total number of China-Europe freight train trips exceed 100,000, bringing the total value of goods transported via the overland trade route to $420 billion.
On Thursday, production of the country's 10 millionth NEV was completed, making China the first country globally to achieve this milestone.
The real estate market also showed signs of bottoming out, while the volume of transactions in the A-share market increased significantly amid improving expectations.
Analysts pointed to positive factors in investment, which may result in an uptick in the remainder of the year.
Sun Chuanwang, a professor at Xiamen University, told the Global Times on Friday that investment is expected to further recover in the remaining months of 2024, based on combined factors ranging from the implementation of major projects to fiscal support and progress in the manufacturing sector.
In addition, the issuance of ultra-long special treasury bonds and the raising of the ceiling for local government debt to replace existing hidden debts will help to beef up market expectations regarding investment by local governments, Sun said.
To achieve the annual targets for economic and social development, Fu said the country must double the efforts to implement incremental policies, to consolidate and enhance the momentum for economic recovery and growth.
Following the latest trend, several international financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Nomura, and CitiBank, have recently raised their growth forecasts for China.
