Illustration: Liu Xiangya/GT

Following the latest round of encounters between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea,mk the US, Japan and the Philippines held a joint exercise within Manila's exclusive economic zone on Friday, a move playing a destructive role for managing differences and undermining regional peace and stability.

According to a statement released by the US Indo-Pacific Command (PACOM), participating units included a US Navy P-8A Poseidon from Patrol Squadron 47; the Philippine Navy BRP Andres Bonifacioand a C-90; and the Japan Maritime Self Defense Force Murasame-class destroyer JS Samidare(DD 106).

It said that "the combined armed and defense forces of Japan, the Philippines, and the US, demonstrating a collective commitment to strengthen regional and international cooperation in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific, conducted a Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity within the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone."

On Wednesday, China implemented control measures against Philippine ships that attempted to intrude into the territorial waters of China's Huangyan Dao. On Monday, the China Coast Guard (CCG) stated that it had taken necessary management and control measures against Philippine vessels that recently illegally gathered in the waters of China's Houteng Jiao.

Teresita Daza, spokesperson for the Philippines' Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA), said on Thursday that the DFA has formally lodged a protest with China over the latest incident around Huangyan Dao. The latest diplomatic complaint brings the number of protests Manila has filed against Beijing this year to 60, with the total coming to 193 since Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. took office in 2022, she said, per the Philippines News Agency. 

Chinese military expert Song Zhongping said PACOM's use of the term "Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity," rather than "patrol" or "drill," suggests that this event is seen more as a routine operation, suggesting enhanced military deployments and a greater regular military presence in the Philippines.

In order to increase its strength to provoke China, the Philippines is trying to attract various kinds of support from its allies outside the region, whether it is verbal, formal or substantive, and is even willing to yield its strategic independence and sovereign interests, Song said.

The Philippines is trying to stoke the South China Sea issue by constantly creating trouble so as to accumulate new discourse materials for the cognitive war of building the "China threat" rhetoric, Ding Duo, a deputy director of the Institute of Maritime Law and Policy at China's National Institute for South China Sea Studies, told the Global Times.

The intervention of external forces may encourage the Philippines in the short term, but from the perspective of crisis management of maritime disputes, it has a destructive and negative catalytic effect on the maritime situation, Ding said. 

China's thinking and position in dealing with the South China Sea issue maintains continuity and stability, and flame-fanning from the US and Japan will not affect China's strategic focus, but will cause the Philippines to pay a price, Song said.

Manila's anxiety

One day before the joint drill, the Philippines and Japan on Thursday signed a 1.6-billion-yen ($10.65 million) security assistance deal to boost Manila's maritime security and surveillance abilities, Reuters reported. 

Japan will provide the Philippine Navy with equipment such as rigid-hulled inflatable boats and coastal radar systems under its Overseas Security Assistance (OSA) programme, while The Philippine Air Force will receive equipment to support its air surveillance radar system from Tokyo, Reuters said. 

The DFA said the assistance from Japan will improve the country's "capabilities to deter threats to peace, stability and security in the Indo-Pacific region," per the Phil Star. 

Behind the recent provocations against China and the strengthening of cooperation with Japan is the Marcos administration's aim of distracting attention from domestic contradictions and seeking political self-interest. But more importantly, it also reflects Manila's concern and anxiety over future Philippine-US relations, according to Chen Xiangmiao, director of the World Navy Research Center at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies. 

The expert said that under the concept of "America First" of the incoming US administration, Manila may have to exert more effort and even leverage in order to maintain the US-Philippines relationship, he noted. 

"So in the last phase of the Biden administration, Manila wants to create some fait accompli in terms of policy framework that would be difficult to change after Donald Trump takes office," said Chen, "Manila may be trying to remind or even kidnap Washington by stirring up trouble in the South China Sea, hoping that the incoming US administration will give it more substantive support."

Chen said that in contrast to the uncertainty from the US, Japan, which is becoming increasingly involved in the South China Sea issue, represents a certainty that Manila can rely upon, as weapons and equipment provided by Tokyo can, to some extent, play a substitute role for the US.

Japan had provided coastal surveillance radars to the Philippine Navy in fiscal 2023 as well, according to Jiji press. In May 2024, Japan agreed to provide the Philippines with a 64.3 billion yen low-interest loan for the acquisition of five additional Japanese patrol vessels, according to Kyodo News, which also noted that Japan has already provided 12 patrol ships, called "multi-role response vessels" to the Philippine Coast Guard since 2016. 

In July this year, the Philippines and Japan signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement, which permits the deployment of their forces on each other's soil for joint combat training and drills.

Japan is likely to move from a supporting role in military aid and cooperation with the Philippines to a leading role, helping to elevate Manila's defense and coast guard capabilities, and giving it more infiltration of interests in the Philippines, just as the US did in the past, Chen said. 

It cannot be ruled out that Japan may even establish a maritime Self-Defense Force base in the Philippines in the future, Chen added. 

Ding said that Japan's active interference in the South China Sea is aimed at giving itself more leverage and easing its pressure in the Diaoyu Islands disputes, while gradually realizing the goal of becoming a "normal country" capable of possessing military power and becoming militarized through military equipment aid to the Philippines. 

Japan's move is a cause for alarm, as it had a very shameful history in Southeast Asia during the Second World War, said Ding.