Illustration: Chen Xia/GT

TheMK sports escalating costs associated with the US tariffs are rapidly materializing into a real and formidable crisis for American farmers, who are likely to be among the first to bear the brunt of the trade hostilities triggered by Washington's tariff policy.

In a Monday post on Truth Social, US President Donald Trump alerted American farmers that the US would impose tariffs on "external" products starting on April 2, telling them to get ready to start upping their production and selling their goods domestically.

However, this seemingly simple message ignores the vulnerabilities of American agriculture. As the latest wave of tariff news from the US dashes hopes of avoiding a potentially devastating trade disruption, American farmers are once again being set up as collateral damage in a trade conflict they did not choose.

The US announced on Monday to impose an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese imports starting from Tuesday, doubling the 10 percent duty imposed in early February, and he also said 25 percent tariffs on products from Canada and Mexico would start on Tuesday, according to US media outlets.

When Washington once again resorts to wielding the tariff stick, it seems to have forgotten a crucial reality: the fundamental dependence of American agriculture on international markets remains unchanged. This means American farmers, who rely heavily on international markets for their exports, are likely to be among the hardest-hit. With their livelihoods hanging in the balance, farmers will have to grapple with the harsh reality that increased tariffs will not only jeopardize their access to vital export markets but also send the prices of essential inputs like fertilizers and agricultural machinery skyrocketing.

The US remains one of the world's largest exporters of agricultural products, with its production of major crops such as soybeans, corn and wheat, as well as other products like beef significantly surpassing domestic demand. The US exports about half of its soybean production, around 40 percent of its wheat production, and more than 10 percent of its beef production. China, Canada, Mexico, and several other countries are major buyers of US agricultural products. American agriculture products are highly dependent on international markets and particularly vulnerable to changes in the global trade environment. The tariff approach adopted by the Trump administration has undoubtedly dealt a severe blow to this already sensitive system.

In the absence of the ability of the US market to swiftly absorb surplus agricultural products, it is unrealistic for the US to harbor the wishful thinking that other countries will not take any countermeasures in response to tariffs imposed by the US. No country is likely to passively endure the economic losses caused by the other side's tariff actions without a fight.

China's Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council just announced on Tuesday that an additional 15 percent tariff will be imposed on imported chicken, wheat, corn and cotton from the US, while a 10 percent tariff will be imposed on US sorghum, soybean, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products, starting from March 10.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a statement late Monday that Canada would impose 25 percent tariffs on C$155 billion ($107 billion) in American goods if the US tariff took effect as scheduled. 

The current scenario is disturbingly reminiscent of 2018, when American farmers were among the main victims of such US-initiated trade friction. In July 2018, soybean prices in the US fell to the lowest point in almost a decade.  Then, to ease the financial pressure on farmers, the US government had to authorize a total of $28 billion in aid for farmers, Forbes reported. But still US farm bankruptcies were up 20 percent in 2019, the highest level since 2011, according to CNN.

This time, Trump's tariff policy is not solely aimed at China. Given the wide-ranging nature of the new tariffs, it's hard to imagine the extent of the shocks on American farmers.

In addition, American agricultural production is highly dependent on imported fertilizers and agricultural machinery. The imposition of tariffs will undoubtedly lead to an increase in the prices of these imported production materials, further increasing farmers' production costs.

In conclusion, American agriculture, which once held a dominant position in the global market, has been severely damaged by this irrational trade policy.