Illustration: Chen Xia/GT

How will China's economy perform next?MK sports During the National Day holidays that just passed, observers both at home and abroad not only paid their attention on the popularity of holiday tourism, but also held unique expectations for China's economic performance. A series of proactive measures since late September have stimulated market optimism and promoted the rapid warming of the stock and property markets. On the first day after the holidays, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to brief on the "systematic implementation of a package of incremental policies aimed at solidly promoting the upward structural improvement of the economy and the continued improvement of the development trend." People can clearly feel that confidence in the Chinese economy is genuinely and steadily increasing.

In response to the surge in new account openings in the securities market during the National Day holidays, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced it will extend the acceptance time for designated trading order instructions starting from October 8. With the intensive release of new real estate policies in many places, sales of commercial housing have increased significantly. "The coffee machine has reached the upper limit of cup output" at a housing sales office in Guangzhou; many overseas institutions, including Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and Citigroup, are optimistic about the positive impact of the policy on the market... "Exceeding expectations" has become a high-frequency phrase in many market research reports, which is actually reasonable. They once again confirm a significant judgment: The fundamentals of the Chinese economy and favorable conditions, such as a vast market, strong economic resilience and great potential, have not changed.

China's economy has a solid and stable foundation, and the current trend of high-quality development runs deep. Although data such as stock market statistics, investment returns and consumer demand reflect relatively short-term and superficial conditions, they directly indicate confidence in the economy. The global economy has not yet emerged from its downturn, and geopolitical conflicts have further complicated the situation. International hot money has adopted a wait-and-see attitude, and the economic competition among major countries has, to some extent, become a tug of war of confidence centered around economic narratives. The immediate effects of this round of policy adjustments in specific areas demonstrate that we still have sufficient tools in our toolbox under the current circumstances. In recent years, the "China's economic collapse" rhetoric and claims such as "China's economy has peaked" have proven self-defeating in light of facts. China remains one of the fastest growing, most stable and predictable major economies in the world.

Confidence is more precious than gold. After experiencing the impact of both internal and external complicated factors in recent years, people deeply feel the preciousness of confidence. How to maintain and further effectively enhance confidence remains a priority. We must realize that many problems cannot be solved overnight. In addition to fostering short-term confidence, we also need to build a solid foundation for long-term confidence. In fact, the recent rise in stock market enthusiasm is influenced by a certain degree of market conformity psychology, but more importantly, it reflects society's expectation that the Chinese stock market can truly achieve a healthy "long bull" market. The steady pace of high-quality medium- to long-term development of the Chinese economy serves as the fundamental support for realizing the prospects of a "long bull" market. 

The fundamental goal of China's development is to enable its people to live better lives. From crowded tourist attractions to the popularity of exchanging old consumer goods for new ones, these phenomena reflect the people's pursuit of a better life. The rapid increase in confidence in economic growth in the short term is largely due to the policies introduced by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, which embody a "scenario-based" approach and respond to the public's expectations for stabilizing the housing market and the stock market - stability in the housing market represents a scenario of "safe and happy living," while stability in the stock market signifies a scenario of "profitable investment." For various regions and departments, the next important step is to implement the decisions and deployments of the Central Committee of the CPC, further deepen the policies and measures that aim at stabilizing expectations and enhancing confidence, and promote a sustained recovery and improvement in the economy. As economic expectations continue to improve, market and investor confidence will be maintained.

The Chinese economy has shifted from a phase of rapid growth to a phase of high-quality development. This process itself will bring certain growing pains, but we have already seen more opportunities and broader prospects emerging on the new track. For example, the emerging economy represented by the "three news" - new industries, new business formats, and new business models - is continuously developing, and the formation of new quality productive forces is accelerating. This has become an important driving force for economic transformation and upgrading, as well as for enhancing economic vitality. In the new situation, we must prioritize action, unite our efforts, and solidly promote transformation and upgrading. By overcoming these challenges, China's economy can steadily advance on the path of high-quality development.

Chinese people often say, "Every obstacle is difficult, but we will overcome each one; there are always more solutions than difficulties." With the further strengthening of macro policies, and the optimization of the investment and business environment, a positive interaction between industrial upgrading and employment growth, as well as between financial investment and the real economy, will take shape. This will create a vibrant atmosphere for entrepreneurs and investors to engage in business and innovation. From 1979 to 2023, China's average contribution to global economic growth has ranked first in the world. This story is far from over; the future will continue to be written. Believing in and investing in China is an investment in the future.