MK sportvote in the country's election on February 23, 2025 in the city of Potsdam, near Berlin. Voting got underway at 8 am local time with more than 59 million Germans eligible to cast ballots. Photo: VCG" src="https://www.globaltimes.cn/Portals/0/attachment/2025/2025-02-23/2f823883-28ad-4a8c-a480-1f33a3dbe9c6.jpeg" />

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz casts his vote in the country's election on February 23, 2025 in the city of Potsdam, near Berlin. Voting got underway at 8 am local time with more than 59 million Germans eligible to cast ballots. Photo: VCG

Germany headed to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament, with the election described by Western media as intense. A Chinese expert said this election will be extremely polarized and fragmented.

Sunday's election follows the collapse of the "traffic light coalition," a coalition government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Xinhua News Agency reported on Saturday. 

The snap election will determine the composition of the new Bundestag, Germany's lower house of parliament, and, ultimately, the next chancellor, Xinhua reported. 

According to a Reuters poll, the election is expected to see leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party Friedrich Merz regain power as Merz's CDU/Christian Social Union (CSU) bloc has consistently led polls and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is set to score its best ever result. 

Scholz's Social Democrats have been polling between 14-16 percent, which would be their worst postwar result in a national parliamentary election, the AP said. 

The 12-year-old AfD is on track to come in second place for the first time in a national election, Reuters said. 

This far-right party has attracted much attention both at home and abroad, and its US supporters include Elon Musk and US Vice President JD Vance, the Washington Post reported on Saturday. 

But given Germany's history, the prospect of a growing far-right movement has worried many Germans, and more than 200,000 protesters rallied against the party in Munich this month, the Washington Post said. 

Jiang Feng, professor of European Studies at the Shanghai International Studies University and president of the Shanghai Association of Regional and Country Studies, described Germany's election as extremely polarized and fragmented. 

"The distribution of votes among different parties is quite scattered, which could lead to a situation where the more parties there are in parliament, the more dispersed the votes become, ultimately weakening the government's cohesion," Jiang told the Global Times on Sunday. This will make the process of forming a coalition government extremely difficult, he said. 

As a result, Germany may continue the trend of Scholz's weak government. If that happens, at a time when Europe is facing a breakdown in transatlantic relations and global turbulence is intensifying, Germany could miss a critical opportunity to unite and move forward, Jiang noted. 

Closely watched election 

Voting got underway at 8 am local time with more than 59 million Germans eligible to cast ballots, and the first estimates based on exit polls is expected after polls close at 6 pm local time, the AFP reported. 

A final official result is expected early Monday, the AP said. 

While polls suggest the conservative CDU/CSU bloc will garner the most votes, it is unlikely any party will win a majority, German media Deutsche Welle (DW) said. And that means two or more parties will probably have to form a coalition - a process that can sometimes take weeks or even months of tough negotiations, DW said. 

For a two-way coalition, the CDU/CSU may turn to either the SPD or the Greens. Reconciling policy principles won't be easy: The Social Democrats have their social policy at the top of their agenda, and for the Greens it is climate protection, according to DW.

US Vice President JD Vance met the leader of AfD Alice Weidel in Munich on February 14, France24 reported. 

In a policy dubbed the "firewall," parties have formed a consensus not to work with the AfD, which is under surveillance by the German domestic intelligence service, Reuters said. 

Vance also delivered a speech at the Munich Security Conference where he berated EU leaders for ignoring voters' wishes and told Germany there is "no room for firewalls," according to the AFP. 

Germany has long been a junior partner in the US-led world order, and the US-Germany relationship has always been unique. The CDU/CSU, in particular, is likely to compromise with the US, but the Trump administration may not necessarily show much respect in return, Sun Keqin, a research fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times on Sunday. 

The new German government needs to strengthen its autonomy to counter potential disruptions from the US, Sun said. 

Future diplomacy in focus

German election frontrunner Merz from the center-right CDU party on Saturday promised to revive Europe's largest economy and defend Europe's interests in the face of a confrontational US administration, the Al Jazeera reported. 

On possible diplomatic approach, Politico claimed that Merz has taken a less pliant line on China than Scholz, whose SPD has close ties to Volkswagen.

"Merz aims to develop the economy, and China is undeniably one of the most important economic players, so naturally China should be considered a key economic partner," Jiang said. 

"On the other hand, Merz is also pro-America. To maintain or strengthen the relationship with the US, he may sacrifice China's interests or align more closely with Washington on related issues," Jiang added. 

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, met with Merz on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on February 14, Xinhua reported. 

China supports Germany in playing a greater role in global and regional affairs, particularly amid the current turbulent international landscape, and stands ready to enhance coordination and cooperation with Germany to jointly uphold free trade and practice multilateralism, Wang said.

Still, there are doubts about whether Merz can maintain a relatively independent China policy - whether he can minimize the US influences, and whether he can move beyond the ideological framework that has shaped Germany's China policy in recent years, Jiang noted. 

During his meeting with Wang, Merz highlighted the deep-rooted foundation of Germany-China relations, noting that bilateral cooperation across various fields has made significant progress over the past 50-plus years, according to Xinhua. 

Germany firmly supports free trade, and deeper cooperation between Germany, Europe and China, and is willing to play a constructive role in facilitating a proper resolution to Europe-China frictions, Merz said.