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Oval Office meeting between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky explodes into shouting match at the White House on February 28, 2025. Photo: VCG.

Delegations from the US and Ukraine are set to sit down at the negotiation table in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, after a public spat between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House last month, which was followed by the US pausing military aid to Ukraine and stopped sharing intelligence.

Negotiations are being employed by Washington to gauge Kiev's willingness to make concessions aimed at resolving the conflict. Meanwhile, for Ukraine, this represents an opportunity to persuade the US to resume aid, according to media reports. 

The negotiations between the US and Ukraine in Saudi Arabia will take place against the backdrop of Russia's advances in the Kursk region. Chinese experts suggest that US' ability to navigate peace talks is increasingly affected by the imbalance on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine. 

The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz are due to arrive in Saudi Arabia for Tuesday's talks, and the Ukrainian team will be represented by Zelensky's head of office Andriy Yermak, the country's national security adviser as well as foreign and defense ministers, the BBC reported.

The US delegation will also be watching for signs that the Ukrainians are serious about improving ties with the Trump administration after a meeting between Trump and Zelensky devolved into an argument last month, Reuters quoted an US official as saying.

Officials briefed on preparations for the negotiations in Saudi Arabia said Kiev was set to propose a partial ceasefire with Russia for long-range drone and missile strikes and combat operations in the Black Sea, in the hope that the talks would lead Washington to reverse its decision to freeze intelligence sharing and weaponry supplies, per the Financial Times.

Hanging over Jeddah is the fate of a minerals deal between the US and Ukraine, which Kiev wants to include a US security guarantee in exchange for access to certain mineral resources in Ukraine. Trump said on Sunday he thought Ukraine would sign it, reported Reuters. 

"They will sign the minerals deal but I want them to want peace... They haven't shown it to the extent they should," said Trump.

Days after their shouting match in the White House, Zelensky described the meeting as a "regrettable" gathering and also wrote that he is ready to sign the minerals deal, arguing it would be a "step toward greater security and solid security guarantees." 

The US continues to share some intelligence with Ukraine to assist with defense operations, but not for attacks on Russian troops, CNN reported on Friday, citing two anonymous defense officials.

The negotiation is likely to involve concessions from both sides, with Ukraine potentially agreeing to a minerals deal and the US resuming certain security guarantees on a pro forma basis, Cui Heng, a scholar at the Shanghai-based China National Institute for SCO International Exchange and Judicial Cooperation, told the Global Times. 

Russian forces have regained control of three settlements in the Kursk region, its Defense Ministry said Sunday, after the US freeze on military and intelligence aid on Ukraine, according to Xinhua News Agency. 

In what the BBC described as "a sharp change in tone," Trump has said on Friday he is "strongly considering large-scale sanctions" and tariffs on Russia until a ceasefire and peace deal with Ukraine is reached. Trump said he was contemplating the move because "Russia is absolutely 'pounding' Ukraine on the battlefield right now."

Trump is using carrot-and-stick approach to both Russia and Ukraine, said Cui. 

As Russia's advances on the battlefield have increased the stakes at the negotiation table, they have also created an imbalance of power, as this disrupts US' plan for ceasefire talks, Li Haidong, a professor at China Foreign Affairs University, told the Global Times. 

"In this regard, the room for the US to maneuver in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine is further limited with unclear prospect," Li added.