MK sportsaerial photo shows smoke billowing from a building in Damascus on December 8, 2024. Rebels declared that they have taken Damascus on December 8. Photo: VCG" src="https://www.globaltimes.cn/Portals/0/attachment/2024/2024-12-08/efbc8940-5e28-43f3-9e7f-5b51000253f3.jpeg" />

This aerial photo shows smoke billowing from a building in Damascus on December 8, 2024. Rebels declared that they have taken Damascus on December 8. Photo: VCG

Over the past few days, the situation in Syria has undergone rapid and dramatic changes. On Sunday, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that following his talks with a number of participants in the armed conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic, Bashar al-Assad decided to step down as the Syrian President and leave the country, instructing the government to transfer power peacefully. It was later reported that Assad has been granted asylum by Russia after opposition groups stormed Damascus. 

The upheaval in Syria is a lingering aftershock of the Arab Spring more than a decade later and is also part of the spillover effects from the new round of the Palestine-Israel conflict. Not long after Lebanon and Israel reached a ceasefire agreement, Syria experienced a drastic shift, underscoring the fragility, complexity, and interconnectedness of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. The Syrian upheaval is also a result of the shifting balance of political forces in the region.

Both internal and external factors have contributed to the sharp changes in Syria's political situation. 

On one hand, the Syrian civil war remains an unresolved conflict. While large-scale fighting ended in 2016, opposition forces have entrenched themselves in Syria's northwestern Idlib province, gradually gaining strength. Although the Assad government once escaped the threat to its survival and regained control of most of the country, it still faces severe international sanctions, a poor economy, and difficult living conditions. The military is poorly equipped and morale is low, and it has suffered defeats in recent offensives by opposition forces. 

On the other hand, this long-dormant Syrian civil war was reactivated by shifts in geopolitical dynamics. Over the past two years, Syria has rejoined the Arab world. However, countries like Russia and Iran, which had provided critical support to the Syrian government during its previous intense battles with opposition forces, are now distracted by their own issues and are unable to pay full attention to Syria's situation. Against the backdrop of a major change in the Middle Eastern geopolitical environment due to the new Palestine-Israel conflict, Syrian opposition forces seized the opportunity presented by the region's complex and shifting dynamics to launch a new offensive.

Looking back at history, Syria once led the wave of Arab nationalism and secularism. Although it's a small country, Syria has always been an important force on the Middle Eastern stage. This recent upheaval is bound to have a profound impact on both Syria's domestic situation and the geopolitical landscape of the region.

First, the political situation in Syria remains uncertain, and the political transition may face challenges. The main body of the Syrian opposition consists of armed groups with a clear Islamist orientation. Although they have shown signs of adjustment and transformation in recent years, it remains to be seen whether they can evolve into a moderate and inclusive leadership force. After the "transfer of power" from the Assad government, how to reconcile the religious and secular forces in Syria, as well as address their relationship with the Kurdish armed forces, is also crucial.

Second, the Syrian opposition will face the task of gaining international recognition. The main body of the opposition has been designated as a terrorist organization by some countries, which means they will face challenges in legitimizing their identity in the future. Among the main opposition groups, there are also foreign combatants from other countries and regions, which poses a further challenge to the future regime's identity recognition in Syria.

From an external perspective, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and other members of the "Axis of Resistance" led by Iran are seen as influential forces in the situation in Syria in recent years. It is worth paying attention to how Russia, which has military bases in Syria, Iran, which regards Syria as a core member of the "Axis of Resistance," and Turkey, which plays an important role in the Syrian situation, will respond.

Currently, the main concern of the international community is whether Syria can quickly restore stability, smoothly carry out political transition, and avoid the spillover of the Syrian crisis, which would add uncertainty to the already fragile security landscape of the Middle East. Amid the current situation, the various factions within Syria should make correct and rational choices regarding the historic question of "where the situation in Syria is headed." Regional countries and the international community should also play a positive guiding role in promoting the swift restoration of peace in Syria's domestic politics and overall situation.

The author is a professor with the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University. [email protected]