Illustration: Liu Xidan/GT

According to a Bloomberg report on Sunday,MKsports US employers probably tempered their hiring in March, as consumer caution mounted and the economic outlook darkened amid concerns over the repercussions of increased tariffs. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg estimate that payrolls expanded by 138,000, not reaching the 151,000-job gain observed in the previous month. This forecast, issued prior to the release of official figures, has intensified market pessimism, casting further doubt on the notion that tariffs are a simple solution to bringing back manufacturing jobs.

Despite the Trump administration's assertion that tariffs will "create jobs like we have never seen before," evidence appears to indicate a contrary trend. A survey carried out by Duke University and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta revealed a marked decline in CFO economic optimism amid the uncertainty wrought by US tariffs. According to a CNN report on March 26, one in four US businesses has scaled back hiring plans due to the turmoil triggered by the trade war initiated by the US.

The belief that tariffs can rejuvenate American manufacturing jobs is persistent yet fundamentally flawed. In reality, the US cannot rely solely on tariff policies to bring about a large-scale resurgence of manufacturing. A key reason is that the current state of US infrastructure, economic structure, financial market conditions and labor market dynamics no longer support the mass relocation of manufacturing, especially labor-intensive manufacturing, back to American soil.

Taking the labor market as an example, the lack of skilled workers has long been a barrier to bringing manufacturing back to the US. According to a study by Deloitte and The Manufacturing Institute, the manufacturing skills gap in the US could lead to 2.1 million unfilled jobs by 2030. The shortage of skilled workers is deeply connected to the American educational system and is not something that can be easily changed.

Against this backdrop, there have been an increasing number of indicators pointing to a decline in CFO economic optimism, which spells bad news for the American job market. The turmoil surrounding tariffs has led to a deer-in-headlights moment for many companies. As reported by CNN, executives don't know how high tariffs will go, what products will be affected, or how long they'll stay in place. Faced with deep uncertainty, some businesses have scaled back hiring plans for 2025.

Washington's tariff policies could affect the American job market in several ways. First, imposing higher tariffs on imported raw materials like steel and aluminum could increase production costs for US manufacturers. This squeeze on corporate profits may, in turn, affect their investment and expansion plans, potentially leading to a reduction in manufacturing jobs.

Second, American consumer confidence is on the decline. The Conference Board reported recently that its consumer confidence index fell 7.2 points in March to 92.9, the fourth straight monthly decline and its lowest reading since January 2021, according to the Associated Press. Driven by rising concerns over tariffs and inflation, the dip in American consumer confidence could have an impact on businesses related to consumer spending, delaying their expansion and hiring plans.

Third, the imposition of additional tariffs and other policies by the US government has prompted several international organizations to sound the alarm on the US economy. They warn of challenges such as escalating debt, intensifying inflation and slowing growth. The spread of economic pessimism could affect recruitment plans across a broader spectrum of businesses, beyond just the manufacturing and consumer sectors.

A likely scenario is that US tariff policies might stifle job growth, constrained by a variety of factors such as a reported decline in CFO economic optimism. The much-touted political promises of revitalizing manufacturing jobs may not materialize. In this context, the impact of US tariff policies on the job market would be solely reductive.

The author is a reporter with the Global Times. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn