Illustration: Liu Xidan/GT

TheMKsports US government has announced that it would impose "an individualized reciprocal higher tariff on the countries with which the US has the largest trade deficits," to take effect on Wednesday. Under the guise of reciprocity, the US is engaging in trade protectionism, a move anticipated to severely disrupt the global trading system and strike American households, industries and the broader economy. 

The US economy's performance is capturing market attention, with a particular focus on monitoring and forecasting the economic repercussions and disturbances arising from US tariff policies. Amid the lingering effects of tariffs, subtle adjustments in US economic indicators for March were recorded. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers for March posted a reading of 57, which represented an 11.9 percent decline from February. Consumer sentiment suffered in March as concerns over factors such as inflation deepened.

Some statistics showed that since 1953, personal consumption has increasingly become the linchpin of US GDP growth, outpacing both investment and exports in terms of its contribution. Given that consumer spending is the primary catalyst for US economic growth, any stagnation in this area could profoundly destabilize the American economy.

In addition to the impact on consumer spending, tariffs are anticipated to exert a multifaceted drag on US economic expansion. Several financial institutions have revised their growth projections for the US economy downward. For example, Goldman Sachs, on Sunday, lowered its US economic growth outlook for 2025 to 1.3 percent from 1.5 percent, Reuters reported on Monday.

Since January, the Trump administration has persistently wielded the threat of tariffs. In a span of just over two months, we've witnessed subtle yet discernible shifts in US economic indicators. They have notably altered market expectations, casting a shadow of pessimism over the outlook for the US economy.

The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the US is anticipated to disrupt global trade dynamics. The repercussions of these tariffs are expected to unfold in the coming months, with tangible effects on US economic indicators. A further downturn in these indicators could swiftly lead to a bleak forecast for the US economy, potentially triggering widespread concern or even panic. Consequently, each new round of tariffs levied by the US represents a substantial detriment to its economy and overall market confidence.

Following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a barrage of tariffs targeting the country's trading partners, US stocks suffered a steep sell-off last week. The S&P 500 plummeted 6 percent on Friday, as reported by the Associated Press. This is considered Wall Street's worst crisis since the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the report.  

Investor sentiment has deteriorated, reflecting a near-unanimous view within the US market: tariffs are detrimental to the economy. According to the Guardian, Trump told US consumers in a post on his Truth Social network to "hang tough, it won't be easy, but the end result will be historic". Despite his steadfast stance, the unavoidable truth remains: it won't be easy.

The question is: Can the US economy withstand the shock? The US government repeatedly wields the tariff stick and causes disruptions to its own economy every time it does so. 

Generally speaking, any economic policy has both positive and negative effects. However, the series of measures such as "reciprocal tariffs" implemented by the US are too strong, too broad in scope and have too severe impacts. The continuously accumulating negative effects are likely to exceed the US economy's capacity to bear them. Some signals indicate that the risk of a recession in the US economy is rising. If the US cannot correct its course and continues to strengthen tariff policies, then the risk of a recession may become a reality.

Can US tariff policies boost manufacturing, or more straightforwardly, bring benefits to the US economy? From a historical perspective, tariff policy has been a common tool used by the US government. Since the founding of the nation in 1776, the US has repeatedly attempted to alleviate economic difficulties by raising tariffs, but these efforts have not achieved the desired results. The reasons behind the hollowing-out of the manufacturing industry in the US are complex, and it is impossible to resolve them overnight through simple tariff policies.

The so-called "reciprocal tariffs" by the US are a highly irresponsible practice that not only harms its own economy but also has the potential to severely disrupt the global multilateral trading system. China has promptly implemented necessary countermeasures and stands on the side of maintaining the global multilateral trading system. China is unwavering in its commitment to multilateralism and demonstrates its willingness to work with other countries to promote free trade and achieve mutual benefits.

The author is former president of the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn