Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

TheMK sports Korea annual Balikatan or "shoulder-to-shoulder" drills is running from April 22 to May 10. Last week, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr said he was considering including Japan in the Balikatan military exercise between the US and the Philippines. There are also reports showing Japan has been invited to participate fully in next year's exercise, while this year, Japan will join as an observer. 

If Japan ever becomes an official participant in the Balikatan exercise in the future, it will not only bring significant changes to regional security dynamics but also create new security traps in the Asia-Pacific region. 

In recent years, with changes in the international situation, especially the increasing US efforts to contain and suppress China, the scale of the Balikatan exercise has been continuing to expand, with a growing emphasis on military confrontation. This year, the drills will simulate retaking enemy-occupied islands in areas facing the island of Taiwan and the South China Sea. Throughout the three-week exercise, battalions from both the US and the Philippines will focus more than ever on operating as a single fighting force. The location of the exercise, the current background, and the invited countries all reflect the increasing aggressiveness and the target of the drills, which are clearly aimed at China.

The US and the Philippines are trying to bring Japan into the Balikatan exercise to create a more solid US-Japan-Philippines clique. In early June 2023, the US Coast Guard, the Japan Coast Guard and the Philippine Coast Guard jointly deployed six law enforcement vessels to conduct the first joint maritime exercise in the waters near the Philippine province of Batanes. In April, the US, Japan, Australia and the Philippines held their first joint naval drills, including anti-submarine warfare training, in a show of force in the South China Sea. In addition, there are various types of bilateral joint drills between the US and Japan, and the US and the Philippines. 

The goal of inviting Japan to formally participate in the Balikatan drills is to deepen coordination of the US-Japan-Philippines security defense cooperation to try to make the three waters, namely the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Taiwan Straits interconnected. Moreover, this move aims to consolidate the US-Japan-Philippines clique. Earlier this month, the US, Japan and the Philippines held their first summit meeting. But a solid trilateral relationship requires more institutionalized measures, and cannot be fully achieved with just one summit meeting. Therefore, by bringing Japan into the annual joint drills as a formal participant, the US and the Philippines are continuously promoting the institutionalization of trilateral security cooperation and enhancing the stability of trilateral relations. 

According to the Voice of America, Japan announced late last year that it was in talks with the Philippines for a defense pact, the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) that would provide for enhanced security assistance. Reports show that the RAA would not be in place during the joint Balikatan exercise, with the full text expected to be finished later this year. If the RAA were signed, Japan and the Philippines would be moving toward a quasi-alliance relationship, with Japan more deeply embedded in the US-Philippines security defense cooperation. 

South China Sea issue does not concern the US or Japan, and their involvement in the South China Sea in the form of joint drills will only exacerbate the complexity of the South China Sea issue. At the same time, Japan continues to seek making breakthroughs in constraints from its pacifist constitution and aims to achieve the goal of becoming a "military power." In recent years, it has been increasingly accommodating the US and strengthening its role as the "spear" in the framework of the US-Japan alliance.

For a long time, US minilateralism in the region has seriously disrupted the peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region, and if Japan, which is accelerating its militarization, joins another joint exercise led by the US, it will undoubtedly create new security traps in the region.

The Asia-Pacific region is a highland of peace and development and should not become an arena for power struggles, let alone a battlefield for cold wars or hot wars. Regional countries should explore the path of Asia-Pacific cooperation and win-win cooperation side by side, they should not engage in activities that harm others. In order to avoid further losing credibility with regional countries and the international community, Japan, as a member of the Asia-Pacific region, should not become an unstable factor that disrupts and destroys regional peace.

The author is a guest research fellow at the Centre for Japanese Studies, Liaoning University. [email protected]