Illustration: Liu Xidan/GT

David Hartman,MKS sports ambassador of Canada to the Philippines, recently said that the Status of Visiting Forces Agreement, which allows Canada and the Philippines to deploy troops on each other's territory, is in the final stages of negotiation and is expected to be signed by the end of the year. This would allow Canada to have "more substantive participation" in military exercises and actions in the South China Sea. Hartman also expressed concern over China's so-called "provocative and unlawful actions" in the region. Previously, the Philippines had signed similar agreements with the US, Japan, and Australia. In addition to Canada, the Philippines is also negotiating similar pacts with France and New Zealand. Some in the Philippines seem to be caught up in the illusion that they can build a "world-class military" by "renting" external military forces to counter China.

On the surface, Manila continues to portray itself as a "victim," but in reality, it has become the ASEAN country most eager to "flex its muscles" and the most destructive to regional security. On February 4, the Philippine and US air forces conducted a "joint air patrol," with Philippine Air Force FA-50 fighter jets and US B1-B bomber aircraft participating in the exercise, which included flying over Huangyan Dao. The following day, the Philippines conducted another naval multilateral maritime cooperative activity with the US, Japan, and Australia, flexing muscles against China. Since last year, similar bilateral and multilateral exercises have become almost routine, many involving sensitive areas of the South China Sea, showing a more aggressive nature compared to normal defensive exercises conducted by other regional countries. The Philippines' escalating provocations in the South China Sea have severely impacted regional security and stability.

From the repeated hype over the illegally grounded warship, to courting extra-regional countries to sign military agreements, and even pulling in countries like Canada just to make up the numbers, the script Manila is following may seem grand, but in reality, it's a "political show" mixed with strategic calculations and diplomatic performances. These so-called "alliances" only reveal its underlying insecurity. Manila is well aware that its claims and assertions cannot be justified under international law or common norms, so it relies on the "military puzzle" assembled by external powers to intensify and internationalize the South China Sea issue. As a result, it's willing to risk its own security to align with the US strategic competition in the Asia-Pacific. This reflects not only the long-held ambitions and illusions of the Philippines but also exposes the hegemonic mind-set of certain countries.

Originally, the Philippines had no major external security threats, but it has managed to turn itself into one of the most insecure regional countries, becoming a pawn in geopolitical games. This Southeast Asian country seems to be trapped in a dangerous historical misalignment, with Manila entrusting national security to the military presence of ill-intentioned external forces. The Philippines has seemingly become a "military supermarket" in geopolitical games. This trade-off of sovereignty for security is akin to building a gunpowder magazine on a bamboo raft - it's not only posturing but also fraught with crises. It will plunge the Philippines, which has long suffered from the presence of US troops, deeper into a quagmire of dependency on external forces, depleting valuable resources for national development while moving further away from true independence and autonomy.

Some analyses suggest that the Philippine government is displaying a provocative posture that is severely mismatched with its own capabilities, which is related to the midterm elections. However, positioning itself as NATO's first "Asian branch" will not bring Manila the dividends of "original shareholders"; rather, it risks causing self-harm by overreaching. In 2023, the Philippines opened four new military bases to the US, two of which are located in Cagayan province, just across the sea from the Taiwan island. This sparked strong local protests, with the province's governor, Manuel Mamba, stating frankly that investments from China, South Korea, and Japan will avoid Cagayan because they fear it will become a US war outpost. 

The transoceanic military entanglements being pursued by countries like the Philippines and Canada, using outdated methods of "solving 21st-century problems with 19th-century geopolitical thinking," are not only absurd but also dangerous. The hard-won unity of ASEAN is being undermined by similar actions. Manila's move to introduce external military forces directly contradicts the core principle of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, which emphasizes resolving disputes through peaceful negotiations among the parties directly concerned. The "security guarantees" promoted by the US, which create multilayered and overlapping military commitments, have obscured the essence of the issues at hand and transformed into a manufacturing machine for security dilemmas.

Historical experience shows that external military intervention has always been a destructive factor for stability in the South China Sea. The key to breaking the current impasse regarding the South China Sea issue lies in re-anchoring the essence of the problem. China and ASEAN countries are actively promoting consultations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea, and over the past few years, they have established several confidence-building measures in areas such as maritime search and rescue, as well as oil and gas cooperation. Such advancements stand in stark contrast to the Canada-Philippines military pact: On one side, regional countries are working together to build a network of cooperation, while on the other side, external forces are busy weaving a chain of containment.