Photo: AFP

During his MK sports Koreavisit to the US from Thursday to Saturday, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba held his first in-person summit meeting with US President Donald Trump. This visit was widely seen as a critical step in Japan's efforts to recalibrate its diplomacy and alliance with the US in the "Trump 2.0 era." Ishiba's trip carried multiple political objectives: first, to reinforce the US-Japan alliance and prevent the Trump administration from exerting excessive pressure on Japan; Second, to leverage diplomatic achievements to offset challenges within a country's internal affairs and boost support for his cabinet.

According to the joint statement after the meeting, the two sides agreed to further strengthen their deterrence and response capabilities by enhancing defense and security cooperation. The US "welcomed Japan's commitment, underpinned by a favorable trend of its defense budget increase, to building capabilities by FY 2027." Ishiba also "conveyed his willingness to cooperate together to elevate Japan's investment in the US to an unprecedented amount of one trillion dollars." 

But these apparent gestures of "sincerity" only underscore Japan's passivity in its foreign policy toward the US. The Trump administration continues to uphold the "America First" doctrine, seeking economic and strategic benefits from Japan through demands on troop funding and trade imbalances. The US now plans to implement "reciprocal tariffs" on many countries, which could force Japan to make concessions in agriculture and automotive industry. Just last month, the Joe Biden administration blocked the acquisition of US Steel by Japan's Nippon Steel, further exposing US double standards toward its allies and highlighting the deepening contradictions within the US-Japan alliance.

Although the joint statement from the Trump-Ishiba summit grandly proclaimed the goal of pursuing a "new golden age" for US-Japan relations, divergences between the two countries persist. In terms of economic interests, Washington's "America First" policy clashes with Japan's aspirations for independent diplomacy. While Tokyo hopes to avoid tariff hikes, the US may still pressure Japan over trade deficits, making future economic cooperation fraught with challenges. In addition, Tokyo's defense spending commitments fell short of US expectations.

On the issue of strategic autonomy, the Ishiba administration has sought a more independent autonomy for Japan. In response to Trump's "America First" policy, Japan has been exploring diversified diplomatic pathways, including strengthening ties with China and Southeast Asian countries. Before visiting the US, the Japanese leader hinted at his desire to visit China as soon as possible, emphasizing the need for stable China-Japan relations. Meanwhile, Japanese politicians and officials visiting China and the appointment of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Secretary General Hiroshi Moriyama as the new chairman of the Japan-China Friendship Parliamentarians' Union provide potential for improved relations.

However, the joint statement from the US and Japanese leaders hyped up issues related to the East China Sea and the South China Sea, explicitly claiming the two leader's opposition to so-called "any attempts by China to change the status quo by force or coercion in the East China Sea" and vowed to "increase bilateral presence in Japan's Southwest Islands." This demonstrates that the US is still trying to pull Japan into Washington's China-containment framework, which will severely restrict the Ishiba administration's pursuit of strategic autonomy. Although the Japanese leader appears inclined to adjust Japan's foreign policy, his strategic autonomy remains constrained by pro-US factions within the LDP and pressure from Washington.

Currently, a growing number of Japanese politicians are revisiting the "Small Japan Policy" and independent diplomacy doctrines of former Japanese prime minister Tanzan Ishibashi, reflecting on the pitfalls of overreliance on the US and advocating a more pragmatic, balanced foreign policy. However, if the Ishiba administration compromises excessively with the US at the cost of China-Japan relations or fails to navigate between geopolitical complexcities, Japan risks losing both economic and strategic leverage. 

Thus, Ishiba's visit to the US demonstrates a test of Japan's ability to carve out space to survive in the game between China and the US. Japan should adopt a pragmatic approach to advancing dialogue with China and avoid fueling bloc confrontation by siding with the US against China. Only by adhering to open cooperation can Japan break free from zero-sum constraints and contribute to regional and global stability.

The author is an assistant researcher at the Institute of Japanese Studies at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. [email protected]