Illustration: Liu Xidan/GT

Where will the US-India relationship head during Donald Trump's second presidency?MKsports  During Joe Biden's presidency, India was one of the countries that the US stepped up efforts to woo. As Trump is set to assume office, the direction of US-India relationship in the near future is generating a lot of attention.

In the transitional period between the two US administrations, high-level officials from both countries have engaged in a flurry of reciprocal visits. On December 24, 2024, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar embarked on a six-day visit to the US, where he met with officials from the Biden administration as well as members of the Trump team. Prior to that, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri had already held several days of discussions with US officials in Washington. 

While New Delhi has publicly expressed that it is "not nervous" about Trump's return to power, a sense of uncertainty remains. In fact, Indian officials are uneasy about whether the "Indo-Pacific Strategy" will continue under the new US administration and whether the US-India relationship will continue to develop smoothly after Trump's comeback.

In addition to Indian officials' US trips, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan paid a farewell visit to India in early January, meeting with many Indian high-level officials. Sullivan and Indian officials tackled the development of the US-India strategic technology partnership, the progress of key initiatives such as the US-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET), and defense agreements. Sullivan's visit also signaled that a page is about to be turned on the US-India relationship. Some in India's strategic circles hope that the personal friendship between Modi and Trump will help maintain strong US-India relations in this next stage. However, it appears that prospects for US-India relations under Trump's second term may not be as bright as some hope.

First, the Trump administration is expected to focus more on domestic affairs, and India's importance may decline. The US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" may not be a focus of the new administration, as it might prefer not to provoke external conflicts that could distract from domestic issues. 

Since India's importance to the US lies in its role as a pillar of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy," this means that India's strategic position could significantly diminish. In particular, after the new administration takes office, the US may not honor commitments made by the Biden administration on policies like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity and iCET, potentially scrapping or rebranding them.

In addition, the Trump administration may impose new tariffs on India, further straining the trade relationship between the two countries. The US is one of India's few trading partners with a trade surplus, and Trump has labeled India a "very big abuser" of trade ties. During his first term, Trump ended India's preferential trade status and imposed tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum. During his re-election campaign, he repeatedly threatened to impose high tariffs on imports from several countries, including India. Currently, it has been reported that the Modi administration is open to lowering tariffs on US products in exchange for the Trump administration's refraining from raising tariffs on Indian goods.

There will also be issues regarding Indian migrants. Indians are the second-largest immigrant group in the US. With many Americans concerned that a surge in immigration could hurt job prospects or create more social problems, the Trump administration is anticipated to adopt a stricter immigration policy in line with the "America First" doctrine. This is bound to have an impact on Indian migrants. Together with the allegations that India attempted to murder some of its critics on American soil, which have, to a great extent, haunted US-India relations, there are concerns that the two countries could see certain tensions over immigration issues.

In summary, even though the US-India relationship under the Biden administration can be characterized by an unprecedented level of proximity, it may not continue at the same pace under the Trump administration.

The author is director of the Center for South Asia Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies. [email protected]