Illustration: Tang Tengfei/GT
With the new US administration set to take office,
MK sports Korea European countries are growing increasingly skeptical about whether the current "aid to Ukraine, containment of Russia" strategy can be sustained and whether it will achieve the established geopolitical goals. While concerned that the US might leave a military and diplomatic vacuum, they also seek to mitigate associated risks through diversified diplomacy.
Recently, European officials claimed that if the US were to cut aid to Ukraine, European military spending would double, exacerbating the existing tension in Europe as countries struggle to shoulder the financial burden.
Last month, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a one-hour "detailed and frank" conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, marking the first direct conversation between a Western leader and Russia in two years. Although the two sides failed to reach an agreement, both conveyed more positive signals than in the past. In fact, this contact signals that Western, particularly European, powers are seeking a more pragmatic way to handle the crisis and end the conflict, opening the door to returning the peace process to the right track.
The past two years of conflict have demonstrated that the West's goal of using the military to assist Ukraine in achieving geopolitical and strategic leverage is hard to accomplish. The long-standing deadlock between Russia and Ukraine shows no signs of breaking, with Western aid failing to give Ukraine a military advantage or make significant progress, and only managing to sustain a mutual war of attrition with Russia. As time passes, Western countries' fatigue with providing aid is becoming more apparent, as military-industrial production capacities and stockpiles are increasingly stretched, and fiscal pressures rise. These financial strains clash with the need to support emerging industries and stimulate economic recovery, while public discontent grows over unnecessary expenditures and economic stagnation. Against this backdrop, Western hawks are increasingly aware that providing aid to Ukraine is a quagmire, yet in the context of political correctness and heightened ideological emotions, they are compelled to continue to push more chips onto the table.
The ultimate resolution of the Ukrainian crisis will still require all parties to form a comprehensive framework and international dialogue mechanism based on mutual respect for sovereignty, understanding and addressing security concerns, and mutually advancing ceasefires and negotiations. As the most important participant in regional security, Europe should seek its own security and manage surrounding conflicts in ways that foster long-term peace and universal security.
The author is an associate research fellow at the Institute of European Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. [email protected]
