MKsports 2024. China’s first intelligent manufacturing base for offshore oil and gas equipment was put into full operation recently. This base focuses on producing offshore oil and gas platforms and high-end offshore products, according to the Xinhua News Agency. Photo: cnsphoto" />

A worker works at an intelligent manufacturing base in North China’s Tianjin Municipality on November 1, 2024. China’s first intelligent manufacturing base for offshore oil and gas equipment was put into full operation recently. This base focuses on producing offshore oil and gas platforms and high-end offshore products, according to the Xinhua News Agency. Photo: cnsphoto

Since October, driven by incremental pro-growth policies such as equipment upgrading and consumer goods trade-ins, the recovery of the Chinese economy has gained further traction.

This is primarily reflected in a marked rebound in domestic consumption, a growth in the broad services sector and foreign trade. China has achieved basic stability in manufacturing output, domestic investment, and labor employment, which together help boost the overall market confidence.

Currently, Chinese authorities at all levels are ramping up efforts to implement a set of stimulus measures to make sure the completion of major tasks during the remaining time of the year in order to achieve the annual economic and social development goals.

As the measures are carried out, the nation's economic recovery is expected to stabilize and gain pace. In the fourth quarter, the positive trend of China's economic recovery will be further solidified, and the GDP growth is expected to see further improvement.

For instance, total industrial added value in October increased by 5.3 percent year-on-year. In the month, China's manufacturing sector grew by 5.4 percent, up by 0.2 percentage points from the prior month.

From the demand side, customs statistics show a significant rebound in exports in October, highlighting the resilience of the economy. From the perspective of industrial lines, the added value of automobile manufacturing increased by 6.2 percent year-on-year, accelerating by 1.6 percentage points from September.

In October, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8 percent year-on-year, accelerating by 1.6 percentage points compared with the prior month. Government policies promoting large-scale equipment renewals and trade-ins of big-ticket consumer goods have continued to gain impetus, driving a rebound in the growth of durable consumer goods. And, improvements in labor employment and incomes have also had a positive impact on boosting domestic consumption.

The trade-in of big-ticket consumer goods has consistently driven up durable goods consumption. Combined with the seasonal consumption surge in October, total retail sales in October hiked by 5 percent year-on-year, accelerating by 1.7 percentage points from a month earlier.

Wen Bin Photo: Courtesy of Wen Bin

In addition to the stimulus measures, rising employment and income levels helped bolster domestic consumption. In October, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from September, marking a decline for two consecutive months.

Also, since October, the central bank's move to cut existing mortgage rates has lowered many residents' repayment burden. Early signs of stability in the real estate and capital markets have further supported household consumption.

From January to October, China's fixed asset investment increased by 3.4 percent year-on-year, remaining unchanged from January to September. Infrastructure investment and manufacturing sector investment saw a slight acceleration in growth, though the growth rate of housing development investment dropped.

The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress on November 8 announced a comprehensive package of incremental pro-growth policies. As those policies are adopted and start to take effect, the positive trend of economic recovery will be further consolidated and strengthened. In the fourth quarter, the upward trend of China's economy is likely to be further solidified, many experts predict.

Coming next, the government will quicken its pace in implementing the pro-growth policies to maximize their impact, solidify enhance economic growth momentum, and strive to achieve the annual economic and social development goals.

However, if the policy effects fall short of expectations, or if external shocks continue to chip in, it is anticipated that new incremental pro-growth policies will be introduced.

The author is chief economist at China Minsheng Banking Corp. [email protected]